Welcome to week 8 of the NFL season. I can’t believe we’re nearly halfway done with the regular season. This season has especially flown by. If you’re down money on the betting season, this is the perfect time to catch back up, as we are starting to figure out the teams a little bit more. The contenders and the pretenders are sorting themselves out. The games get more intense as every battle matters for playoff position.
My strategy this week is going to be to bet against the teams that I think their records are better than what the team is. For example, I’m not buying the Cardinals winning 3 in a row as the teams they’ve beaten in that stretch are a combined 3-18 on the year. With that, here’s my top 3 picks.
1. Philadelphia Eagles (+1) @ Buffalo Bills
I would love for this line to be +3, Vegas might know something here, but I’m sticking with my strategy. The Bills at 5-1 have beaten the Jets (1-5), Giants (2-5), Bengals (0-7), Titans (3-4), and Dolphins (0-6). Those teams are a combined 6-27. Their only loss is to an undefeated Patriots team. The Eagles biggest weakness has been a lack of healthy secondary players. With Josh Allen only averaging 250 YPG, with a 36.7 QBR, I’m not as worried about the Eagles defense getting shredded as they have in weeks past. I believe this is going to be a “get-right” game for Philly.
My prediction: Eagles 24, Bills 17
2. Seattle (-7.5) @ Atlanta Falcons
The Seahawks have beaten the Bengals (0-7), Steelers (2-4), Cardinals (3-3-1), Rams (4-3), Browns (2-4). Those teams are a combined 11-21-1. The 2 teams they’ve lost to have been the Saints (6-1) and the Ravens (4-3). The Seahawks make a living in this league by beating the teams they’re supposed to. The Falcons (1-5) are without Matt Ryan which had me thinking this line would climb to -10. The Seahawks go into Atlanta and take care of business behind a high-powered offense and an opportunistic defense.
My prediction: Seahawks 28, Falcons 10
3. Carolina (+4.5) @ San Francisco 49ers
Let’s keep looking at teams past schedules. The 49ers are currently undefeated and being touted as one of the best teams in the league. They have beaten the Buccaneers (2-4), Bengals (0-7), Steelers (2-4), Browns (2-4), Rams (4-3), Redskins (1-6). Those teams are a combined 11-28. The most impressive win has been against the Rams, where they completely shutdown the Rams offense. However, that came without the Rams star RB, Todd Gurley. I am not making the case the 49ers are not a good team, because it’s still hard to win in the NFL. However, I think the Panthers are going to cover behind a great day from Christian McCaffrey and a turnover-free game from backup QB Kyle Allen.
My Prediction: 49ers 20, Panthers 17
Best of luck gambling today.